SA 2025 - Planning our Future

This Quarterly Roundtable Series discussion was made possible through generous funding by the Open Society Foundation For South Africa.

The Helen Suzman Foundation hosted a lively panel discussion at the Rosebank Hotel on the 14 October 2009. Former HSF director Raenette Taljaard chaired the discussion and the panel made up of Neren Rau (CEO Sacci), Aubrey Matshiqi (independent analyst), Azar Jammine (Econometrix) and William Gumede (independent analyst) provided thought provoking and substantive comment. The discussion covered two new Green Papers: National Strategic Planning and Improving Government Performance, submitted by Trevor Manuel and Collins Chabane respectively.

Raenette provided the context to the discussion by saying that the Planning Commissions of India, Brazil and Botswana all have a bearing on the national project that Manuel is leading. She said however that there are institutional, constitutional and political questions that need to be urgently addressed during the policy process.

Neren Rau started off the panel discussion. He mentioned that theoretically the papers were setting South Africa on the right path but that delivery in the short-term needed to receive more notice to ensure that the Zuma administration could be held accountable for delivery.  Mr Rau echoed Raenette’s opening comments (institutional concerns) by saying that the articulation of the role of Minister Manuel vis a vis the Deputy President was conspicuously absent. He was also concerned that although the unions had been mentioned in the paper, the role of business was not satisfactorily acknowledged. Rau closed on a philosophical note saying that civil society should take on an increased role and government a decreased role in a democracy. He noted that these sentiments were not reflected in the paper on National Strategic Planning.

Aubrey Matshiqi felt that the papers were on the right track, but to affect accountability, the definition of the relationship between the President and Cabinet needed to be addressed. The personalisation of the National Strategic Planning paper around Trevor Manuel he felt was striking. Matshiqi spoke of the global economic crisis that he said is forcing an ideological shift from the ‘Anglo-Saxon’ capitalist model (that emphasises the role of markets above the role of the state) to a developmental model that brings the role of the state strongly to the fore. Reflecting on the Green Paper for Improving Government Performance, Matshiqi said that the current proposal, that the President will enter into performance agreements with ministers, has a major bearing on the electoral system. If the people directly elected the president he said, these performance agreements that are being proposed would have much more muscle as it would be the people who would vote the President out of power if ministers did not deliver.  Matshiqi concluded by saying that despite the promises outlined in both papers, he does not expect fundamental change over the next five years. This was because it would be impossible for the Zuma administration to fulfil its election promises as it would firstly need to spend a considerable time building internal capacity.   

Azar Jammine expressed his frustration at the constant discussions about how to solve problems of service delivery and the Green Paper’s lack of focus on the urgency of decision making on all matters concerning the governing of the state and the lack of human resources available to make the important decisions. Building resources Jammine said, is a very long term project. He also questioned the overriding emphasis by government on growth when there is an almost exact correlation of the South African growth rate with the growth rate of the rest of the world.

William Gumede echoed Jammine and Matshiqi saying that the idea of a National Planning Commission was a good one, but that in order for it to be effective, it would need not only political legitimacy but also a technically skilled bureaucracy to drive the long term plan. This public administration would need to take advantage of the best skills in the country, regardless of political faction or race. He underlined the importance of a development coalition which would bring together stakeholders from business, civil society, political parties and the unions. Ultimately the big obstacle is the political project, Gumede said.  Zuma’s ‘coalition’ will not allow the Planning Commission to work independently of the alliance as all groupings in the coalition seek reward for loyalty. With supporters calling in favours, the Zuma administration might find that the politics of its alliances partners cause paralysis at the centre. In sum Gumede said that difficult and courageous political decisions would have to be taken for a centralised commission to have traction and drive the development project.

The panel discussion was followed by questions from the audience. Points raised included the need for the public service to be professionalised and depoliticised and that education and skills development were imperative as part of a long term solution to effective delivery.

Publication of the full transcript will be available on our website shortly.

Media Coverage

Alliance ‘will stifle growth’ by Zukile Majova (Sowetan)

Zuma reforms not possible in five years by Wilson Johwa (Business Day)

Manuel out to ‘accrue too much power’ by Karima Brown (Business Day)